05.01.12 Using Pending Sale Versus Active Sale to Understand your Market

by qinfovio 13. May 2012 13:50
Good afternoon,
May 1st is a celebration of the Lily of the Valley also known as Labor Day in France.
In my 27 years in the US with a dual citizenship (US & French), I feel obligated to vote for the first time next Saturday
for our next French Presidential Election.
As the world economy is not improving, specially in Europe, it seems that the easy way for our government to find some money,
is to go after the higher income that have been call rich people. Income of over 1 million euro will be tax at 75% and they call it patriotic
to pay a supplement over 1 million income, I call it a robbery!
The more that you will tax the rich, the more they will flee our country.
You cannot resolve a debt and your budget that way, you have to create Growth.
In the US, we can also create growth by reducing our corporate tax and bring back some of our manufacturing that moved oversea.
Bottom line, penalizing peoples that make more money to pay for our debt will not improve our economy, it will just get
worst once they all moved their money.
Back to real estate, I will be just going over some numbers looking at Pending Home Sale (under a contract of sale with buyer, not available).
I will be looking at regular sale versus distress sale (short sale and foreclosure).
This information will help you to understand the situation with our home price and the housing market in the Peninsula.
In some area, looking at these numbers and also into my NOD list, I can see an increase of distress sale in the Carmel Valley area
with 40 pending and has 13 as distress sale. I will expect larger price drop specifically in this area.
There is a regular pending sale just off Carmel Valley Road, very noisy location at $525,000.00 and completely outdated that
 will need a good $250,000 to $300,000. You should be able to buy this house the next 18 months for no more than $350,000.
The best way to find out is to look at comparable sale in Monterey, PG and even Carmel.
If you plan to buy in Carmel Valley, you should wait unless is a distress sale and selling will be the good time before it's really drop.
Carmel has 43 with 8 (buy only distress sale)
Hwy 68 all the way to Benancio Road, Las Palmas 53 pending with 38 (buy)
Pebble Beach 18 with 3 (buy only distress sale)
Pacific Grove 38 with 21(buy)
Monterey 35 with 21(buy)
Seaside 56 with 43 (buy)
Marina 23 with 18 (buy)
Concerning selling a home in this area, expect larger further price drop until it reach 50/50.
Thanks and I will see you next week!
Christian Viollaz
License 01318338

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