07.03.12 Tuesday Talk "Ben get his money, US get his Independency,and the French have to eat their debt until it explode."

by qinfovio 3. July 2012 16:49
Good afternoon,
 
We had a good meeting last week with Leslie Appleton-Young our California Association Realtor "Chief Economist".
She was very neutral, just sharing analysis and data.
 
She started with the bankruptcy with the City of Stockton and then she move to a larger issue concerning
the economy in Europe. I now understand why the US is so concern with the economy over there,
since they represent 90% of the US export.
 
GDP for the first quarter at 1.6%, second quarter 1.9%. California unemployment at 12%,
and we lost over 500,000 jobs since the crisis, mostly in construction, lending, real estate area.
 
She mentioned that we should expect a lot of government cutting job.
 
California new housing permits are up from 20.6% from 2010. Under water mortgage represent 29.9% of home owners and another
4.7% that have negative equity. It is one on the main reason to our low inventory. 
 
She mentioned no inflation for 2013 and not to pay attention with the media with the real estate market. The real estate market
is very local and the best way to find out is to go by zip code.
 
Another bigger concern is what is going to happen with Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac and FHA. All these low
down payment loans have been bought back through bonds. To be able to sell these type of loan through the banks,
it will take a larger down payment and through more strict regulation.
She mentioned that not every body should be a home owner,and you should be able to save so you can put a larger down payment.
The No Down payment that come with VA loan or 3.5% with FHA is not much of a collateral!
 
You can check on the link below for the complete information.
 
 
The message that I received is that we are going to go back like we used to do loan.
It is going to take time for real estate to goes up, just like it was. it will goes up accordingly with CPI and GDP.
 
                                                ____________________________
 
 
When it comes to Fourth of July, I did improved my American history a lot. I really enjoyed the book and biography
of Benjamin Franklin. At one time of his life, he spent a lot time in France for the only purpose to get some
money to finance the American Independence from the British.
 
Ben get his money, US get his Independency,and the French have to eat their debt until it explode.
 
The 1774 - 1789 was one one the worst financial/fiscal crisis in the world and it was cause to excessive debts
that tax payers have to pay.
 
 
Happy 4 Th of July!
 
 

 

Christian Viollaz
License 1318338
9 Buyer Traps and How to Avoid Them

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06.26.12 Tuesday Talk Carpet Cleaner Hourly Charged Would be More Reasonable

by qinfovio 3. July 2012 16:45
Good afternoon,
 
I have been watching a series call "Lie to Me" through Netflix. It has a lot to do with the body language
and reading people expressions, feelings and I am sure that it is going to help me a lot in real estate.
 
This will take me to this situation where I visited three weeks ago a home owner that was delinquent into his mortgage
at the request of his lender. I found out last week that he hang himself. In his case, he was going through
a divorce, has lost his job and he was in his way to loose his house.
 
I will be more aware of this similar situation in the future since I have access to their personal situation and I will ask straight forward questions.
I will suggest that you do the same if you have friends or family member that go through this hardship.
 
                                                                                ________________________
 
I will be sharing with you next week our tomorrow meeting with CAR California Association of Realtors. They are visiting the Entire State
and bringing us the latest update with our real estate market and also our economy for 2012. It is very important for them to sent the message
across the State and of course, the message is always good, because people want good news just to feel good.
 
                                                                                ________________________
 
I will expect a new brand of business opportunity and mostly for business that charge you per quantity instead of per hours.
The typical example would be carpet cleaning where they charge your per room. I had one my rental that need a carpet cleaning
and I had couple estimate that came to $280.00 and I also ask how much time it would take? The answer was 2 1/2 hours. ($112.00 per hours)
 
You don't need a Master or Ph.D! All you need a machine at around $10,000.00 plus a van. Charging a $60.00 to $70.00 will still good money.
 
It is the same for installing floor, most of them charge per square feet. I did one last year where I paid a per hour and it was a good saving.
 
                                                                                __________________________
 
I was asking 3 weeks ago if we could built a home (1200 to 1400 sf) for $150,000.00.
I was checking with one of my old contractor's friend. He said in the 1970/1980 a general contractor would be
a one man show. He would buy a lot, subdivide the lot, draw a plan and go through the city for approval.
 
But as today with a bunch of policies and useless jobs that have been added, it would not make it profitable to build anymore.
 
 
Thanks and I will see you next week.
 

Chez Christian Reviews

 

Christian Viollaz, Realtor  

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06.19.12 Tuesday Talk "The American Dream of owning a home will be a subject of the Pass Century"

by qinfovio 3. July 2012 16:38
Good afternoon,

 

As today's, inventory is running very low. I think that most first time home buyers are getting  too

picky and the ones that are taking advantage of this situation are investors. We have the lowest interest rate

in the history and less than 4.00% will not exist; unless it is an interest loan only.

 

Most of these loan made in today's market are FHA loan that have been bought back from our government through bonds.

It is not going to be for ever before our government dry out. The next generation of loan will then be made by Banks, Lenders

with higher qualification requirement, larger down payment, higher rate just like it used to be.

 

The American Dream of owning a home will be a subject of the Pass Century. As I expect the home price to keep declining at a lower rate,

mostly at the higher end, most peoples would be unable to buy since they won't have the money for their down payment.

 

As you can see with all our short sales, and foreclosures, most of these loan holders were investors. They are the one that bought of these

bad loans. And believe me that before these investors invest again on buying loan, they will be requiring larger down payment with more restriction.

 

As today, I am seeing faster change in the entire short sales industry with Tax Relief ending this year. I am seeing our government getting more difficult

and giving more opportunity to home owners to stay in their homes and lenders offering deed in lieu to homeowner.

Lenders will be better off to rent these property and bundle a bunch of them to sell them to investor, like Warren Buffet.  He mentioned not long time

ago that he would love to get into this market. Unlike most investors, Warren does not invest into gold, there is no dividend or income from it, it will just goes up

with inflation. Instead, he will look at compounding dividend and in this case the return on bundle's property will be easily around 15% with the volume that

he can buy. These property would be pay off in 6 to 7 years.

                                                                                                _________________________

 

Last week we had a good meeting with one of my client with Philip Daunt a Real Estate Attorney that will take over our short sale.

 

The most important issue was to find out if our homeowner has refinance or not their loans and if they refinance their loans, what was the money used

for? If it was use to do a remodeling, then you will be exempt from your tax but you will need to show all receipts. If the refinance was used to consolidate

debts and spent for any leisure, there is a big chance that you will have some tax consequences.

 

As the first loan go away with a short sale or a foreclosure, the first loan is called a non recourse loan meaning that the lenders cannot come

back after the owner to sue for money repayment, but you still have this tax liability to check. You have to check with your Tax Attorney.

 

Now if the second loan was refinance or if you took a line of credit, it will turn this loan into a recourse loan and the bank/ lenders will have the right

to collect that money and you will be also liable to paid tax on it. The only option left will be to file bankruptcy. You will have to check with

a Bankruptcy Attorney. 

 

Bottom line, short sales will have tax liabilities if not qualify with the tax relief act of 2007 and if it is a non recourse loan, the second will sell to debt collectors.

 

Thanks and I will see you next week

 

Christian Viollaz
License 01318338
 
To Find Out What's Your Home Worth?
 

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06.12.12 Tuesday Talk Silent Spring

by qinfovio 3. July 2012 16:28
Good morning,
 
I just started reading Silent Spring by Rachel Carson. She was one of the first woman biologist in 1937, that later on went to fight the world
of pesticides, herbicides, DDT and all that craps. It was quite a challenge on her side challenging the man's world that come with
a high political involvement of this industry.
 
It is the similar issue with our latest crisis, when nobody want to listen and hoping the party will never end.
What is not good for bugs, insects, weeds... are not going to be good for human being. We cannot growth in a clean
environment that way.
 
In the economic world, we need a clean environment so we can grow in a similar way. I don't plan to be pessimistic
in my Tuesday Talk but I cannot tell you that every is going back up when we are near of the bottom yet.
 
The good news is I know the different steps that I need to take to protect myself and how to benefit from a crisis.
 
                                                                            _________________________
 
The information that I am sharing with youabout short sale property are good for both side and on the buyer side you will know what to expect.
 
It took us 3 years to close this short sale at 485 Francis in Seaside. The challenge with that one was Chase. We had 2 loans with them
and they seem to be finally together with their short sale department.
 
We also closed couple short sales in two months and half, from beginning to the end.
 
                                                                            _________________________
 
As now, the other biggest challenge is the second loan. I have one transaction with Aurora as a first loan and BOA as the second.
As I go in a case by case and see how it develop, I will have to bring an attorney to facilitate this short sale. The second lender is
asking more and more information concerning my seller for the only purpose to sell their info to debt collector.
Even if the short sale is approved by the second lender, there no law to prohibit them to sell their second loan. 
 
I was asking myself if I was better off to let that one foreclose? The only way to get rid of the second loan is through a bankruptcy
that has been discharge or a short sale.Since this transaction is getting such a pain for the amount of work required by both of these lenders,
that maybe BOA will expect me to let it foreclose.If it foreclosed, I will not get paid for the amount of work that I did and it will let
my seller unprotected with debt collector that will hunt them for the rest of their life.
 
The only solution is to take 1% of my commission to cover the facilitator fee and my seller to pay $500.00 the set up fee.
And sometime, you have to spend money to make money
 
                                                                            __________________________
 
I also see more and more banks offering Deed in Lieu to delinquent's homeowner with a minimum payment per month, an amount
of time they can stay with $3000.00 at the end.
 
The HAFA program offer to all short sales is similar but without a minimum payment per month. Concerning your credit,
A Deed in Lieu is also treat as a Foreclosure.
 
Thanks and I will see you next week.
 
Christian Viollaz
License 01318338

FREE Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation

www.MontereyBuyersClub.com

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06.05.2012 Tuesday Talk Always Negotiate with all Offers!

by qinfovio 19. June 2012 16:53
Good afternoon,
 
If you are familiar with smaller project of sub-division, you will find some pocket of opportunity as an investor around Monterey County .
I will need to do more research concerning the construction cost.
 
Price and value of land have dropped at a price where it might be profitable to build again and sell it at a profit.
 
My main question is can you build a home around 1500 sf for $150,000.00? Let me know if some of you
has some information that I can use.
 
                                                        _____________________________
 
Our primary job as a Realtor is to protect our clients as sellers or buyers so they can get the best deal.
 
I have experienced this many times on my own but I have a very good story to share with you that changed my attitude
and try to be more flexible and be at the finishing line.
 
                                                        ________________________________
 
I was representing a seller selling a home in Seaside in 2007 when the market was just changing. 
 
We received a good offer around $820,000.00 and part of the offer was to have seller to clear termite inspection and
to pay for section 1. As I am always very cautious with the section 1 that could be very high sometime, I suggest to limit
our cost to $4000.00. We went ahead with this buyer, they did their termite inspection and it came back at over $8000.00
 
Buyer did not want to pay the extra $4000.00 and walked away. On our side, we told ourselves that we will get another buyer.
 
It took us over 4 months to find another buyer, we sold for $60,000 less.
 
My seller has to carry a note for the buyer for an amount of $196,000.00.
 
Later on this buyer/new owner lost his house in foreclosure, never pay back the note to my seller.
 
And later on my sellers lost their home because they did not received  $196,000.00
 
The bottom line is with the $4000.00 that we try to save end up to cost to my seller their own home.
 
                                            ___________________________
 
Why am I sharing this story with you? I am seeing more and more Agent try to over protect their clients
with our short sales and taking the very high risk to loose the deal at the cost of their clients.
 
What I also learned from this lesson, as a seller's agent, don't kill the deal, be more flexible and be at the finishing line!
 
I am seeing more and more transactions not getting through for few thousands of dollar or stupid act from agents that want
to follow the contract by the letter. You cannot do that with most the short sales, REO.
 
Do not hold the funding of the loan because you request a walk through of the property and to be vacant prior to funding.
 
The hardest past of the transaction has been done, just work it out and put it into writing.
 
 
Thanks and I will see you next week!

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05.29.12 Tuesday Talk Assisting Debt Collector

by qinfovio 19. June 2012 16:50
As now I have a clear understanding why our inventory of foreclosure home is so low. You have heard a lot about the "robo-signing scandal".
Five of our majors Lenders have foreclosed on millions of home without proper verification, disclosures and this mass of home inventory
has contributed to the collapse of the the US Hosing market.
 
And as now, all lenders are required by HUD to make at least 3 attempts to make a physical contact with the homeowner and it is where I step in now.
As a side job, I just join a National Debt Collector where our main job is to visit homeowner. All these lenders go through debt collector to make contact
with homeowner, by calling, mailing by FedEx a package for their loan modification and have me as their field rep to meet with them.
 
I go visit these homeowners asking them if they received their package and some other case I try to get the homeowner over the phone with their lender
and if after 3 attempts, I have made no contact, then the lender will proceed with the foreclosure process.
 
The package that I have to come back to pick up is the same one that come with all our short sale and I need to verify that it is complete. I should ask maybe for tips?
 
I have to take 3 stamps pictures with date and time and this will prove that we try to make contact with homeowners.
 
We are going to have a lot of foreclosure but they will come out at a slower paste because of the process.
 
                                                                        
Thanks and I will see you next week!
 

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05.22.12 Tuesday Talk: Economy Versus Currency

by qinfovio 19. June 2012 16:46
Good afternoon,
 
I am seeing more and more investors that are trying to approach home owners that have received a NOD notice of default.
 
This time, the picture is different that it was 10 years or 15 years ago. None of these properties have enough equity to cover their mortgage.
Their options are deed in lieu, short sale, loan modification or foreclosure. Investors can only buy these properties at the court house
or as a short sale through real estate office.
 
Here is a good link to go check the entire process, it is very complex. All lenders are now sending an ARM length transaction disclosures
 
 
to all their short sale. They want to be sure that there is no fraudulent act and everybody including buyers, sellers and their agents
have to sign.
 
Be very careful with all these disclosures made specifically to prevent fraudulent act!
 
                                                                                           ____________________________________
 
Today, I want to say few words concerning "Currency versus Economy".
 
The value of a currency is base on supply and demand and not in the economy of a country. The more demand there is for your currency,
the more value your currency will have.
 
But if your print more money so you can pay your debt, they will be over supply of money and the currency value will go down.
 
This will mean that you will need more money to buy less and it is what we call inflation.
 
Raising Inflation/Price due to an economy that is booming without putting more money in the market is not inflation, it is just a shortage of your currency.
It is also a growing economy fuel with speculation without real income growth.
 
As now you can see the price of a barrel of oil at  $92.00 but price at the pump is going up instead of going down.
Less investors/demands for U.S dollars and over supply of currency.
 
We have 2 majors events that might trigger a further decline of our currency.
 
First one is PAGE Pan Asian Gold Exchange that I shared with you in one of my Tuesday Talk
 
The purpose of PAGE is to take over the world currency by backing up their gold with 100% gold.
 
and the other one is the embargo with Iran that will take place July 1. Iran was not planning to trade oil in US dollar anymore
 
                                                                       ________________________________
 
 
We are expecting a new edition of Aftershock for this year (last one was done in 2010) that I think might come in the fall.
They are expecting last 2 bubbles to pop "Us Dollar" and our "Government Debt" and these events might do it!
 
Thanks and I will see you next week.

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05.15.2012 Tuesday Talk: Bank of America Short Sale Forum

by qinfovio 19. June 2012 16:40
I went last week to Santa Clara to participate to a forum from BOA (Bank Of America). I could found most of their short sale
information by going to their webinar.
 
The reason that I like to attend is to check the message that they try to send to the Realtors. This forum was completely different  
 from the last one that I attend with Wells Fargo/Wachovia. With Wells Fargo, we were inside the bank facility, around 40 Realtors and nice short talk
on their point of focus with the transaction.
 
With BOA, it was at the Sheraton with around 400 Realtors. The message was little bit different beside the typical subject of the short sale transaction.
BOA was saying that they need us as much we need them and I feel that they want to control us. They had at least 20 loan officers in the back of the room
and it seems that they try to promote and have us to refer our clients to them.
 
Now they also have a bunch of disclosures that come with their short sales and they also mentioned all the work
that we need to do with the short sale process. The investors will not pay anything for us on using any Short Sale Facilitator.
 
As on my side, as a former Mortgage Broker, processing as short sale is almost the same process than doing a loan, I have to provide and collect all the
same documentation, but I cannot get paid. What we usually do, we change the split on the commission to 3.5% on seller side and 2.5% for buyer's agent.
But as now, we are seeing more reduce commission to 5%.
 
They are asking us to do the work of tow persons, for a loan officer and a real estate agent and only one get paid. If a Realtor want to use a short sale facilitator,
they will have to charge the buyer or the buyer's agent.
 
It is going to be very hard for us Realtor to stay in business and compete with Banks. For them if a short close or does not close they are still getting paid
with the help of our government. On our side they are asking us to the do work of two for the price of one and if we don't close, it is a complete lost on our side.
 
2012 starts to looks at 2007/2008 when it was taking for ever to get through a transaction. In 2007/2008 we were not prepare with the short sale process,
and also for the drop of the market and Realtors were the first one to get hit (financially) with this crisis. And now, I am seeing another burden with the length of time
and the amount of work that we need produce with each of these short sales.
 
I want to finish with this forum from BOA with saying that the Banks try to get rid of the real estate agent by controlling and telling us how to handle our  
business and making us doing the work of two person without guaranteed on getting paid. But for us, small business owners we survived the big slow  
down of the 2008 and we will survive that one too.
 

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05.08.12 When the New Energy Would be Available?

by qinfovio 13. May 2012 13:56
Good afternoon,
 
Wells Fargo/Wachovia/World Saving/ was ahead of most lenders when it comes to the short sale market.
 
But as now, Bank of America is up to speed, having a bunch of seminar for Agents to be inform with their process. I will need to attend
one tomorrow. I can probably get all the info through BOA website but we need to show up couple times a year, so we might be on their list
of recommend Agent for their short sale. Few of them are now using the same software through Equator.com and you are welcome to visit,
they also have a lot of info for home owner.
 
The last one that we are all waiting for is Chase. Everything is still done by fax, calling them and a lot of time wasted on our side.
 
                                                                                _________________________
 
I am a subscriber to Doug Casey Research and I am not too crazy with his research and himself for the only reason that for most of the time,
he is always right. The last case, he had an article 3 months ago mentioning that the French President Sarkozy will loose the election and he did. 
 
It seems that a lot of European country are dumping their leaders due to our Economic Crisis. That will be no miracle to this crisis as most people hope,
thinking what go down will go up. Economics are all about income, debt and growth. I was checking this morning on CNN.com where they show that
10 of the 12 country with the highest tax debt was in Europe with an average of 50%.
 
It is like a Cube with 6 colors, you can play as much as you want, but you will never put it together unless you have the right formula, it is not luck
but understanding how it works.
 
I want to share a link below with a very hot topic with new gas discovery that will save us from the oil industry. It might help our economy ,but would be
in the longer run.
 
 
                                                                             
Thanks and I will see you next week!
 
 
Christian Viollaz
License 01318338
 
Our VIP Seller Service provides you with timely, online, direct feedback from prospective buyers
 

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05.01.12 Using Pending Sale Versus Active Sale to Understand your Market

by qinfovio 13. May 2012 13:50
Good afternoon,
 
May 1st is a celebration of the Lily of the Valley also known as Labor Day in France.
 
In my 27 years in the US with a dual citizenship (US & French), I feel obligated to vote for the first time next Saturday
for our next French Presidential Election.
 
As the world economy is not improving, specially in Europe, it seems that the easy way for our government to find some money,
is to go after the higher income that have been call rich people. Income of over 1 million euro will be tax at 75% and they call it patriotic
to pay a supplement over 1 million income, I call it a robbery!
 
The more that you will tax the rich, the more they will flee our country.
You cannot resolve a debt and your budget that way, you have to create Growth.
 
In the US, we can also create growth by reducing our corporate tax and bring back some of our manufacturing that moved oversea.
 
Bottom line, penalizing peoples that make more money to pay for our debt will not improve our economy, it will just get
worst once they all moved their money.
 
 
                                        _______________________________________________
 
Back to real estate, I will be just going over some numbers looking at Pending Home Sale (under a contract of sale with buyer, not available).
I will be looking at regular sale versus distress sale (short sale and foreclosure).
 
This information will help you to understand the situation with our home price and the housing market in the Peninsula.
 
In some area, looking at these numbers and also into my NOD list, I can see an increase of distress sale in the Carmel Valley area
with 40 pending and has 13 as distress sale. I will expect larger price drop specifically in this area.
 
There is a regular pending sale just off Carmel Valley Road, very noisy location at $525,000.00 and completely outdated that
 will need a good $250,000 to $300,000. You should be able to buy this house the next 18 months for no more than $350,000.
The best way to find out is to look at comparable sale in Monterey, PG and even Carmel.
If you plan to buy in Carmel Valley, you should wait unless is a distress sale and selling will be the good time before it's really drop.
 
Carmel has 43 with 8 (buy only distress sale)
Hwy 68 all the way to Benancio Road, Las Palmas 53 pending with 38 (buy)
Pebble Beach 18 with 3 (buy only distress sale)
Pacific Grove 38 with 21(buy)
Monterey 35 with 21(buy)
Seaside 56 with 43 (buy)
Marina 23 with 18 (buy)
 
Concerning selling a home in this area, expect larger further price drop until it reach 50/50.
 
Thanks and I will see you next week!
 
Christian Viollaz
License 01318338

FREE Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation

www.MontereyBuyersClub.com

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